Aryna Sabalenka walked into the Rybakina showdown on the back of a morale-boosting 6–1, 7–5 win over Jessica Bouzas Maneiro that booked her quarterfinal place in Cincinnati. She’d already framed the matchup clearly on Tennis Channel—“It’s going to be a really aggressive match… two big servers and we’ve played a lot of great battles in the past”, and yet she was excited for what would be their 12th meeting. Sabalenka still leads the overall head-to-head, but Rybakina had been closing the gap with big wins at marquee events; this one just tightened it again.

Elena Rybakina seized control from ball one. Fresh off a win over Australian Open champion Madison Keys, she tore through the first set 6–1 and closed 6–4, leaning on a dominant serve: 11 aces, 81% of first-serve points won, and 5/5 break points saved. By contrast, Sabalenka landed only 4 aces, won 65% of first-serve points, and went 0/5 on break chances. The scoreboard looked simple, but the pattern underneath was stark: Rybakina protected her serve perfectly while repeatedly pressuring Sabalenka’s.

Rybakina spelled out the deciding factor herself afterward: “I’m happy with the serve. It was the key… We’re both big hitters. Today I served really well. If Aryna serves well, it’s completely different.” In numbers, that meant Sabalenka winning just 39.4% of her second-serve points to Rybakina’s 57.1%. It’s too big a gap when both women play first-strike tennis. To flip this, Sabalenka needed a higher first-serve hit rate, fewer soft second serves, and more variation (into the body and wide) to keep Rybakina from setting her feet on the first ball. 

And this “serve margin” theme isn’t new in their rivalry or in Sabalenka’s losses. In the 2023 Indian Wells final, Sabalenka’s serve wobbled (10 double faults), and Rybakina pounced in straight sets. Earlier this season in Stuttgart (2025), Sabalenka’s first-serve points-won dipped to 52.9% and her second-serve points-won to 35.5% in a 4–6, 1–6 defeat to Jelena Ostapenko, another big hitter who feasts on short second serves with her aggressive baseline play.

 When Sabalenka serves at her top level, her power game overwhelms; when the first serve drops and second serves sit up, elite returners like Rybakina flip the script. 

World number 10, Elena Rybakina, has now also equalled Petra Kvitova and Aryna Sabalenka for the most wins against the world number one in WTA 1000 since the format introduction in 2009. If we take a look at her numbers, Elena Rybakina has a win-loss record of 41-15 this season. She has won only one title this year, and it came on clay in Strasbourg. Her coach, Davide Sanguinetti, had already set some challenging goals for her. Talking about Rybakina in a previous interview with Italian broadcaster Super Tennis TV, Sanguinetti said, “Next year I would like to take her to number one in the world: she has all the potential.” But to be the world number one, she needs to beat players like Aryna Sabalenka and Iga Swiatek. She has already beaten one in Cincinnati, now it’s time for her to repeat the same thing against Iga Swiatek.

After beating Aryna Sabalenka, Elena Rybakina now sets up for yet another blockbuster clash

Currently, Elena Rybakina has a 4-5 record against the Pole. So, she’s well aware of the threat of this former world number one.

In her post-match interview Rybakina said, “Well, she’s a great player, so of course it’s going to be a difficult match. I will try to focus on myself and try to recover as well. So, yeah, hopefully I can show a good tennis [match] and thanks again for coming.” The former world number 3 has had success in most of the major tournaments, except the US Open. Other than winning the Wimbledon Championships in 2022, Rybakina had reached the finals of the Australian Open in 2023. She also made it to the quarterfinal of the French Open twice (2021, 2024). But at the US Open, her best record has been reaching the third round.

Can she change her fortunes this time? Well, winning the title in Cincinnati will definitely boost her chances in the last major tournament of the 2025 season. What are your thoughts on this, though?