In all four meetings this season, Minnesota and Phoenix never faced each other with fully healthy squads. Now, the playoff series was supposed to be a clash with both teams at their best, but alas, the Lynx will be without DiJonai Carrington, who’s been ruled out for the season.

Now, sure, that’s a setback for Minnesota, especially when it comes to bench depth against a Phoenix team that leads the league in bench points. But here’s the thing: most of those points come from just three players. So while the Lynx are losing a key piece, they still have some reliable options ready to step up.

How we got here: Series context & season recap

The Minnesota Lynx entered the 2025 WNBA playoffs as the No. 1 seed with a 34-10 regular-season record, tying the all-time single-season wins mark set by the 2023 Las Vegas Aces. And, well, the playoffs haven’t slowed them down. They sure fell behind early in both games against Golden State, but rallied each time, including a massive 17-point comeback in Game 2, sweeping the expansion team.

Meanwhile, the Phoenix Mercury, seeded No. 4 at 27-17, rode a late-season surge, winning six straight and eight of nine before a stumble with three straight losses to close. Even with the home advantage in playoffs, Phoenix dropped Game 1 at home but bounced back, handing the New York Liberty a 26-point loss in the Big Apple, their worst in postseason history, and then holding the defending champs in Game 3 to advance out of the first round for the first time since 2021.

Now, these two heavyweights finally meet in the semi-finals.

Catch the action:

• Game 1: Sunday, Sept. 21 at Target Center | 4 p.m. (ESPN)
• Game 2: Tuesday, Sept. 23 at Target Center | 6:30 p.m. (ESPN)
• Game 3: Friday, Sept. 26 at PHX Arena | 8:30 p.m. (ESPN2)
• Game 4 (If necessary): Sunday, Sept. 28 at PHX Arena | TBD
• Game 5 (If necessary): Tuesday, Sept. 30 at Target Center | TBD

Season series recap

The Lynx dominated the season series against Phoenix, winning three of four matchups and outscoring the Mercury by an average of 8.5 points. Some key results: Minnesota’s 74-71 win in the first meeting, with Kayla McBride dropping 20; an 88-65 home win on July 5, highlighted by Collier’s double-double; Phoenix’s lone win, 79-71 at home on July 9, thanks to Thomas’ triple-double; and Minnesota closing out the series with an 79-66 home victory.

But it’s worth noting Mercury had at least one of its stars missing each time.

Playoff history

These two teams have a long postseason history, meeting multiple times over the years, including four straight seasons. It started with Minnesota sweeping the Conference Finals 2-0 in 2011 and then again in 2013, until Phoenix finally got the upper hand in 2014, winning the Conference Finals 2-1. But that was it for the Mercury. They met again in the 2015 Conference Finals, and Minnesota swept Phoenix again; then once more in the Semis in 2016, another 3-0 sweep. Fast forward to 2020 in the second round, and Phoenix lost again.

The latest clash was just last year’s first round, with Phoenix falling 0-2. Now, the teams meet in the playoffs for the second straight year. We’ll see if the Mercury can finally turn the tide this time.

How they match up: Strengths & weaknesses

Minnesota’s two-way dominance has been something special this season, leading the league in both offensive and defensive ratings during the regular season. On offense, they’ve stayed strong in the playoffs, but the defensive crown has a new holder….guess who? Yes, Phoenix. The Mercury now ranks first in defensive rating, though they sit sixth offensively.

The thing is, Phoenix does a lot of things well: three-point shooting, defensive pressure, bench production, forcing turnovers, but the Lynx just do it better. The Mercury shoots 34% from deep, which is solid, but Minnesota counters with 37.8%. In the playoffs, Minnesota ranks fourth in three-point shooting at 34.6%, while Phoenix has dipped to a rough 29.7%.

Minnesota scores 86.1 points per game, six more than the 80.1 points Phoenix allows, while Phoenix puts up 82.8 points, 6.1 more than the 76.7 Minnesota allows. Over the last 10 games, the Lynx have been slightly off their season offensive pace, scoring 85.1 points per contest, while their defense has been a touch more porous, allowing 76.9 points per game. B

But their three-point shooting has actually improved, making 10 threes per game at 40.2%, up from 9.6 and 37.8% this season. The main blemish is offensive boards. They’ve struggled inside due to a lack of size.

Phoenix, meanwhile, has been a bit off offensively over the past 10 games, scoring 80 points per contest (2.8 fewer than their season average). Their defense has actually tightened slightly, giving up 77.1 points per game compared to 80.1 on the year. Three-point shooting is mostly steady with 9.2 makes per game at 34.3%, just slightly different from their season averages.

And while the Mercury’s bench was the best in the regular season, the Lynx have been shining in the playoffs, leading all teams with 27.5 bench points across their two postseason games.

What could change the game?

Statistical

• Alyssa Thomas: After her triple-double performance, we all know by now, when AT is in form and putting up a triple-double, it changes everything for Phoenix. 
• Phoenix’s inconsistency: The Mercury’s three-point shooting can be streaky. Satou Sabally and Kahleah tend to show up, but rarely on the same night.
• Experience: Phoenix has plenty of collective postseason experience, but not with this current group. Only two players in the current rotation, Kahleah Copper and Natasha Mack, were with the Mercury last season. The Lynx, on the other hand, have largely played together before and went to the Finals last year. 
• Getting to the line: Free throws have been tricky for both teams; they rank 6th and 7th in the playoffs, but Phoenix holds a slight edge, averaging 84.0% when it comes to efficiency from the line.
• Rest: The Lynx will have three full days of rest and a loud crowd on their side, while Mercury will play on the enemy’s court after hours of travel and a grueling Game 3 vs Liberty. 

Storylines

• Drive for five / Revenge run: Coach Cheryl Reeve’s drive for five is on full display. The Lynx have already won titles in 2011, 2013, 2015, and 2017, and this postseason is all about adding that fifth record banner. Built on tenacity and togetherness on both ends of the floor, this group has been carrying the chip from last year. After all, they still feel the 2024 title was stolen.
• Building a dynasty: Phoenix is in a new era. With the Taurasi and Griner years behind them, it’s time for this new core to stake its claim and officially begin a fresh chapter in the Valley. Establishing themselves as a contender and a dynasty is the task at hand for the new Big 3.
• Alyssa Thomas vs. her rooks: Back in Connecticut, Thomas’ rookies, Natisha Hiedeman, DiJonai Carrington (out for the season), and Courtney Williams, will now face off against their veteran in this high-stakes clash. 
• MVP Finalists chase first championship: Two of the WNBA’s MVP finalists are chasing their first championship, but fate has them clashing before the Finals. 
• Coaching Gap: There’s a huge gap in experience. Cheryl Reeve has four championships under her belt, while Nate Tibbetts is only in his second year coaching in the WNBA. But modern coaching methods and a bit of beginner’s luck could change fate(s).

Stars and key contributors

When it comes to injuries, we already know Phoenix will be coming in at full strength, while the Lynx will be without their key bench star.

Minnesota Lynx

Napheesa Collier: The MVP frontrunner and 2024 Defensive Player of the Year, Collier is coming off a historic season. In the playoffs, she’s been on fire, leading the team in scoring in both games so far.

Kayla McBride: A two-way sniper with six years of playoff experience, McBride averages 14.5 points in the postseason over her career. And true to it, she’s been right there behind Collier in both playoff games and even shot 60% from beyond the arc in one contest against Golden State.

Courtney Williams: The floor general, second in the league in assists, Williams has been running the show in transition and providing crucial playmaking. She might not have put up huge numbers, but her experience and support are exactly what the Lynx need to function at their best.

X-Factors:

• Alanna Smith: Co-DPOY and third in blocks.
• Natisha Hiedeman: Sixth Woman of the Year candidate, Hiedeman has been a major reason the Lynx’s bench has thrived, averaging 10 points off the bench in the playoffs.
• Jessica Shepard: Another Sixth Woman candidate, Shepard has been the rebounding force for Minnesota in the postseason.

Phoenix mercury

Alyssa Thomas: The Lynx’s biggest threat. Thomas is coming off a triple-double performance against the Liberty (20-11-11) and has been the definition of consistency all season.

Kahleah Copper: The 2021 Finals MVP is averaging 13.7 points and nearly had a double-double in the last game. Her lightning-quick drives to the basket can shred any defense, and she’ll definitely test Minnesota’s stellar on-ball defenders.

Satou Sabally: The scoring boost for Phoenix. She’ll continue to provide points, but don’t overlook her ability to hit from deep when the season is on the line. Her shooting could swing a tight game.

X-Factors:

• DeWanna Bonner: Coach Tibbetts calls her the difference-maker. Along with her 10 points a night, her experience is invaluable.
• Sami Whitcomb: Another key contributor off the bench, averaging 7.3 points.
• Monique Akoa Makani: The star rookie might only average 6 points, but she’s stepped up in big moments and could surprise when it matters most.

Prediction

Analysts and media people overwhelmingly favor the Lynx in four or five games, citing their completeness. 

We, too, have got Minnesota’s edge proving too much for Phoenix in a physical, hard-fought series. Lynx take it 3-1 and punch their ticket back to the Finals, looking to settle the score from 2024.