After months of predictions and unforgettable basketball, the 2025 WNBA Final Four is set. The season had promised superstar dominance from the likes of Caitlin Clark, Paige Bueckers, and Angel Reese, but injuries and upsets reshaped the narrative. Now, as teams that played as a unit reach the semifinals, the spotlight has shifted. The championship is within reach, but only those who refuse to break will make it to the finals.

The Minnesota Lynx enter the semifinals with unfinished business. Last year’s finals heartbreak still haunts, but they’re determined to rewrite the ending. Waiting for them are the Phoenix Mercury, who stumbled late in the regular season with three straight losses, but are peaking at the right moment, stunning the defending champion New York Liberty in three games.

On the other side, A’ja Wilson leads the Las Vegas Aces with championship focus, but Seattle’s Game 2 win and narrow miss in Game 3 are keeping them in check. And then there’s Indiana. The Fever, counted out by nearly everyone, refuses to stop believing, turning doubt into their greatest weapon.

With the Field of 8 now trimmed to the final four, it’s time to break down each team and rate their chances as we head into the final few weeks of what’s been an action-packed WNBA season.

1. Minnesota Lynx

The Lynx are the only team in the semifinals to reach this stage without playing a Game 3. It is a testament to their dominance this season. They finished the regular season with a league-best 34-10 record, leading in both offensive and defensive ratings. But even they had a few question marks heading into the WNBA playoffs, especially after late-season losses to the Fever and Aces. But those clearly seem to have been answered.

Strengths : 

• Scoring: The Lynx led the league with 86.1 points per game, just ahead of Indiana’s 84.9 and Las Vegas’s 83.6
• Elite perimeter efficiency: They also led the league in three-point accuracy, knocking down 37.8% of their attempts from beyond the arc
• Transition dominance: Even though the Lynx play at the slowest pace among the semifinalists, they make it count. They lead all four teams in points off turnovers, averaging 17.2 per game, and top the list in fast-break points with 12.6.

Threats: 

• Absence of DiJonai Carrington: Against the Valkyries, who attempted a league-high 29.9 three-pointers per game during the regular season, the Lynx ended up giving up ten made threes in Game 2, barely scraping by with a one-point win. That could be a red flag against a team like the Mercury, who connect on 34.0% from deep—better than the Valkyries. Missing a key perimeter defender like DiJonai Carrington, whose injury status is still uncertain, could make containing Phoenix from long range even tougher.

2. Las Vegas Aces

The 2025 season was anything but a typical Becky Hammon masterpiece. By midseason, the Las Vegas Aces looked broken, sitting at 14-14 after 28 games and reeling from a humiliating 53-point defeat to the Minnesota Lynx, the worst loss in franchise history.

It wasn’t just another bad night; it shook the Aces’ confidence to the core and sent shockwaves across the league. Something had to change. That’s when A’ja Wilson stepped forward, her voice cutting through the silence, and laid it out straight for her team:

“….if you weren’t embarrassed from yesterday, then don’t come into this gym. You’re not needed or wanted here. We need the mindset to shift because that was embarrassing.”

A’ja Wilson and Co. then finished the season red hot, storming into the WNBA playoffs on a 16-game winning streak. Their turnaround has been nothing short of remarkable, and at the heart of it all? A’ja Wilson. She is leading their charge, averaging a league-high 23.4 points, 2.3 blocks per game, and dominating the leaderboards in 20 and 30-point double-doubles.

Strengths:

• Perimeter efficiency: The Aces are one of the best spacing teams in the league, and with that comes plenty of looks from deep. They put up 25.9 threes per game, second-most among the semifinalists, while knocking them down at a 35.1% rate. But come WNBA playoff time, they’ve taken it up a notch, becoming the most efficient three-point shooting team in the semifinals.
• Familiarity: The Aces know all about these moments. Over the last five years, they’ve made three Finals and two semifinals, winning it all twice. No other team left in the playoffs can match that kind of big-stage experience. The Lynx may be one of the league’s most decorated franchises, but this current group hasn’t lifted the trophy yet—and that’s where the Aces’ edge really shows.

Threats: 

• Prone to Turnovers: The Aces cough up the ball 13 times a game, giving up 13.9 points off those mistakes, the most among the semifinal teams. They also allow 9.9 fast-break points per game, second only to the Mercury among the final four.
• Points in Paint: Even though A’ja Wilson leads the league with 12.1 points in the paint, the Aces as a team manage only 31.9 paint points per game. Add to that just 8.1 offensive rebounds, the lowest among the semifinalists, and it’s clear the paint remains their weakest area.

3. Phoenix Mercury

It was chaos in Phoenix this offseason. The Mercury lost 10 players, including legends like Diana Taurasi and Brittney Griner, with only one starter returning. On paper, it looked like a rebuilding year. But coach Nate Tibbetts and the front office had other plans.

Mercury put together a brand-new core led by the triple-double queen Alyssa Thomas, with Satou Sabally and Kahleah Copper forming the rest of a powerful trio.

Did you know? The Phoenix Mercury hadn’t seen a 25-win season in 11 years, a 20-win season in 7, a top-4 finish in 10, or a WNBA playoff series win in 4 years.

This year, they finally checked every box, powered by their newly built roster. Even in Round 1, few believed they stood a chance against the defending champs. But after taking down the Liberty, Satou Sabally sent a clear message after Game 2: “We’re not done yet.” Now, the Mercury stand in the semifinals, ready to take on the top-seeded Lynx.

The Mercury went just 1-3 against the Lynx in the regular season, but context matters. Kahleah Copper didn’t play a single one of those games, while Satou Sabally and Alyssa Thomas each missed two. Now, with everyone finally healthy, Thomas is convinced things will be different this time. “They haven’t seen us full strength so we’re ready to play,” she promised.

Strengths: 

• Perimeter suppression: While the teams mentioned above rely heavily on the three-ball, the Mercury have proven to be their kryptonite. They lock down the perimeter, holding opponents to just 32.1% from deep and 42.7% from the field overall.
• Great rookie class: The Mercury rookie class, filled with experienced players like Maddy Westbeld (29*), Kitija Laksa (29*), Lexi Held (25*), and Monique Akoa Makani (24*), has already made its mark. Together, they’ve logged 35% of Phoenix’s minutes this season and combined for 145 made three-pointers, the most ever by a non-expansion team in WNBA history. *age in bracket.

Threats: 

• Efficiency: With just 34.0% shooting from beyond the arc and 43.3% from the field, the Mercury sit at the bottom of the semifinals pack in terms of overall efficiency.

4. Indiana Fever

Who would have thought that a team missing five key players—including their star, Caitlin Clark—would make it to the semifinals? Yet that’s exactly what the Indiana Fever have done. On the back of MVP contender Kelsey Mitchell, the Fever have defied expectations and are in the semifinals after taking down the 3rd seed Atlanta Dream. Upsets seem to be the Fever’s signature this season, having already toppled the Lynx to claim the Commissioner’s Cup. With their first WNBA playoff series win in 10 years under their belt, the big question now is: can they take the next step and chase the championship? What a story it would be if they can do it!

Strengths: 

• Home crowd: The Fever’s biggest advantage in the semifinals might just be their home crowd at Gainbridge Fieldhouse, besides team unity. With the 2:2:1 WNBA playoff format, they’re guaranteed at least one game in front of their fans—and that energy has already proven decisive. The Fever used that energy to even the series against Atlanta, and it carried through to Game 3 as well. If they can steal a win on the road, any team visiting Gainbridge will face a daunting challenge. The home-court advantage could be the X-factor that keeps their Cinderella run alive.
• Dominant in Paint: Unlike the other semifinalists, the Fever dominate the paint, averaging 40.3 points per game, the highest among all four teams.

Threats: 

• 3-point efficiency: A team that built a reputation of going crazy beyond the arc last season now ranks third-worst in three-point efficiency among the semifinalists at 34.6%, while attempting the fewest shots from beyond the arc.

EssentiallySports Take on road to the 2025 WNBA Finals

If the semifinals follow form and momentum, the 2025 WNBA Finals could very well feature the Minnesota Lynx against the Indiana Fever. Napheesa Collier, the league’s MVP runner-up, has led the Lynx with 22.9 points per game in the regular season, while Minnesota boasts a postseason-leading offensive rating of 114.3, well ahead of the Mercury’s 94.7, highlighting their dominance. The Lynx also lead in assists, averaging 23.5 per game compared to Phoenix’s 19.7 over the last three playoff games, making them clear favorites heading into the Finals unless an upset occurs.

The Indiana Fever enter the semifinals with a postseason defensive rating of 93.4, set to be tested against Las Vegas’ high-powered offense. A’ja Wilson will lead the Aces, having become the first player in league history to win MVP four times. But Indiana’s biggest advantages are their home crowd and bench energy, with Caitlin Clark declaring, “BENCH MOB WILL BE EVEN MORE ROWDY TOMORROW LETS GOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!” Then there’s Kelsey Mitchell, who has played all 44 games this season, carrying an injury-plagued Fever squad through the playoffs.

Momentum and perception may also tilt in Indiana’s favor. Their upset win against the Atlanta Dream is a huge confidence boost, while the Aces’ narrow escape against the Seattle Storm could weigh on them psychologically. Regardless of the outcome, the matchup promises a thrilling spectacle, and WNBA commissioner Cathy Engelbert can rest easy knowing the league has delivered once again.