When the Minnesota Lynx lost the Commissioner’s Cup this year, no one was happier than their fans. In a social media storm that seemed too cruel to be true, countless folks shared GIFs of people dancing, topped off by three words: “We are saved.” Meaning? While Caitlin Clark & Co. were celebrating their 74-59 win and $500,000 reward on Instagram Lives, making pointed comments about the WNBA’s meagre pay, and calling out opponents for hating on them, the Lynx were thinking of the long game, backed by superstitions—the kind that wouldn’t “bode well” for Fever in the playoffs.

During the latest episode of the We Need to Talk podcast, ahead of the Atlanta Dream-Indiana Fever Round 1, Game 1 clash, host Alicia Jay asked The Athletic‘s Erica Ayala, “What are your thoughts on the Dream and the Fever going into this first round?” While the latter cleanly dissected what gives Atlanta the upper hand, and that “Indiana will not advance”, what ultimately took the cake was her concluding comment: “The Commissioner’s Cup curse!” 

“[Indiana] won the cup, but I’ve talked about it before. Winning the Commissioner’s Cup does not always bode well if you want to be a championship contender.” Even Jay agreed to this and added, “As much as I would like the money, I wouldn’t want to win that cup either, given the history.” Understandable why the Lynx fans had a good night’s sleep in July. However, was there even reason to panic in the first place? Funnily, yes and no.

If we look into the Commissioner’s Cup Curse‘s history:

• In 2021, Connecticut Sun won the Commissioner’s Cup 79-57 against the Seattle Storm, but were forced to wrap their season as the fourth seed after losing in the second round to Phoenix Mercury.
• In 2023, New York Liberty won the Commissioner’s Cup 82-63 vs the Las Vegas Aces. Coincidentally, Liberty then lost to the same team in the WNBA Finals, finishing as the second seed.
• In 2024, the Minnesota Lynx won the Commissioner’s Cup 94-89 vs the New York Liberty. Just like the year prior, Lynx then lost to New York in the Finals 2-3. Does seem like a suspicious coincidence, isn’t it? Well, hold your thought because…

In 2022, not only did the Las Vegas Aces secure a 93-83 Commissioner’s Cup win against the Chicago Sky, they also went on to win the WNBA Championship after defeating defeating Connecticut Sun 3-1. And, as things stand, the Indiana Fever, despite the dilapidated state of their injured roster, will attempt to carve out a similar path no matter what the curse says. Unfortunately, Ayala doesn’t have much hope.

Describing how Stephanie White’s team will fall short to Dream, she mentioned, “I think it’s hard to ignore that this is an injury-plagued Indiana team. Them making the playoffs in itself is somewhat of a feat for sure. When you look at Atlanta…this is a team that had the elements and pieces to be a playoff team. I think you talk about the quiet kind of that quiet sneak attack and I think that comes from Atlanta being able to fuel their offense from their defense. This is a team that has the best defensive rating in the league. They also are averaging over 84 points per game, almost 85. They have the most wins in franchise history. I have Atlanta taking this. I do think that Atlanta is likely gonna sweep. I think it’s going to be difficult for Indiana to get a win just knowing that they have so many players out.”

Adding to that, ESPN’s Power Index also gives Indiana just a 2.6 percent chance of capturing the title, well below its first-round opponents, who got handed a 13.6 percent. What’s more? The Fever side is miles behind league leaders Minnesota sitting at 51.5 percent. The odds don’t improve much deeper into the bracket: Only a 34 percent chance to reach the semifinals and just 14.5 percent to advance to the finals.

For Indiana, every step forward would defy the projections. These assumptions fall in line with Ayala’s reasons for picking Atlanta. But a WNBA legend believes the opposite, claiming a Fever win over Atlanta.

Sue Bird highlights Indiana’s hidden advantage against Atlanta

The buildup to Indiana’s first-round matchup has fueled heavy debate, with analysts and insiders weighing in from every angle. Even within the Fever’s own camp, benched guard Sophie Cunningham didn’t mince words when asked who she’d prefer to face: Atlanta. Her reasoning was, “Atlanta may have the least amount of playoff experience, if I’m not mistaken. And I think our team does too. So I think that would be our best matchup.” That sentiment found reinforcement outside the locker room as well. Seattle Storm co-owner and WNBA legend Sue Bird publicly backed Indiana, pointing to one Fever player she believes could emerge as the X-factor in the series.

“To me, the Fever, what they’re bringing is just like a grit. They’re just gritty about it. They find ways to win. They find ways to stay in games. I don’t know. It might come down to, can Aliyah Boston kind of have an impact, not just in the paint, but the way she playmakes against Atlanta’s bigs,” Bird said. The WNBA legend pointed out that while Atlanta’s defense under coach Karl Smesko is elite, they are not untouchable. On the Fever’s side, the focus shifts to Aliyah Boston, their most dynamic weapon.

Averaging 15 points and nearly four assists per game, Boston blends power in the paint with playmaking versatility, creating matchup nightmares against Atlanta’s frontcourt, especially Brionna Jones. Alongside her, Kelsey Mitchell has been Indiana’s steady force, delivering 20.2 points per game across 40 appearances and keeping the Fever’s offense alive through a turbulent season. ESPN still gives the Dream a 66.4 percent chance over Indiana in Game 1 of the first round. But numbers don’t tell the full story. Caitlin Clark’s team has grit, a new-look rotation, and the element of surprise. That’s why this first-round clash feels far from settled.