Right now, Billy Napier might have the worst job security in college football. One week it’s an embarrassing 18–16 home loss to USF. The next, it’s the pre-season people’s Heisman DJ Lagway gift-wrapping five picks to LSU. Billy might not even be the head coach by the end of the year if it keeps going on like this. But somehow, the Miami staff still sees ‘Billy Ball’ as a threat for the Hurricanes.

Napier’s numbers scream disaster. As of September 15, 2025, he’s sitting at 20-21 overall, with a 10-15 mark in SEC play. That .487 winning percentage? The worst for any Florida head coach since 1950 not named “interim.” Florida didn’t hire Napier to flirt with mediocrity, but here we are, 1-2 out the gate and already unranked after peaking at No. 13. In the cutthroat world of SEC football, those stats don’t buy you sympathy. They buy you heat. But despite the 1-2 record, Miami OC Shannon Dawson is not sleeping on the Gators.

On September 15th, Miami Insider hopped onto X and quoted Dawson. “We know the Florida team we’re gonna get. We’ve been watching film of them for a couple of days. I can promise you they don’t look like a 1-2 football team.” Bold thing to say. According to the bookies, the Hurricanes are -300 favorites over the Florida Gators (+240 underdogs). Mario Cristobal’s U is favored by 7.5 points on the spread. Translation? Nobody’s buying Napier’s Gators as a real threat right now.

What makes it sting worse is the preseason hype. Coming off 2024, the Gators finished on a heater, turning a 4-5 start into an 8-5 record capped with a bowl dub. That gave fans a little taste of the good life again, their first winning season in four years. Analysts were talking playoff dreams if the squad stayed healthy. DJ Lagway, fresh off a solid freshman campaign, was supposed to be the guy. But fast forward to week 4, and the script looks nothing like the trailer.

And while Napier sweats bullets, Dan Mullen’s ghost hovers over Gainesville. The same Dan Mullen Florida tossed after back-to-back 6-7 seasons is now 3-0 at UNLV, inching closer to a Mountain West championship. Maybe even playoffs if they keep rolling. Twitter (or X, if you’re corporate) lit up when college football writer Cameron Soran dropped this gem: “Fun stat of the day: Billy Napier would need to win the next 28 games in a row to match the winning percentage that got his predecessor – Dan Mullen – fired.”

Florida fans can’t ignore the irony. Mullen went 29-6 in his first three seasons. He brought three straight New Year’s Six bowls. He even had the Gators back in the SEC title game in 2020 with Kyle Trask slinging darts and almost making to the natty. Sure, 2021 spiraled and the defense turned into Swiss cheese, but Napier’s four-year stretch looks like child’s play in comparison.

And that’s the crux of it. Florida didn’t just fire a coach, they swapped out an identity. They traded in an offensive wizard for a guy whose calling card hasn’t translated. And now? They’re stuck in the mud with a QB tossing balls into triple coverage and a head coach whose seat is getting hotter as winter approaches.

How bad does Billy Napier’s current situation look?

The short answer? As bad as it gets in the SEC without your cardboard box already packed. Napier is 1-10 against key rivals and 2-12 against ranked opponents. When your record looks like that and you’ve got Miami, Texas, and Texas A&M on deck, all ranked, you’re not coaching with confidence. You’re coaching with a countdown clock.

Lagway’s five-pick meltdown in Baton Rouge was gasoline on the fire. LSU’s defense was disguising coverages like a magician pulling rabbits out of hats, and Lagway kept buying the trick. 4 of those interceptions came on third down, killing drives and killing hope. The last time a Florida QB threw that many picks in a single game? 1992.

The ripple effects are brutal. Florida’s defense did its job against LSU, holding strong in the second half. Special teams chipped in too. But every time momentum peeked its head out, Lagway slammed the door with another turnover. Before halftime, a pick set up an LSU field goal. In the third quarter, a pick-six gifted the Tigers their only second-half points. In the fourth, a red-zone pick robbed Florida of a chance at a field goal.

Injuries haven’t helped either. Losing defensive lineman Caleb Banks to a re-aggravated foot injury takes away a key run-stopper for the long haul. And Napier knows the SEC doesn’t send sympathy cards. With 7 of the next 9 opponents ranked in the top 15, the safe bet is to predict that Billy might not be the head coach of the Gators after this season.