Toyota’s dominance in the NASCAR playoffs has been hard to ignore right now. They hold three of the top four playoff spots, especially with the Joe Gibbs Racing teammates Denny Hamlin and Chase Briscoe booking the top two spots, winning the first two playoff races. Many are praising their strength, and among them is one rival who also hasn’t shied away from acknowledging this gap.

The Penske and Hendrick camps are trying to find answers to this problem. The early rounds have surely given a strong hint about their potential to win such major races when it counts. However, Toyota’s own driver, Denny Hamlin, is happy about it but doesn’t seem to boast about this fact yet.

Denny Hamlin stays realistic

In conversation with Denny Hamlin, NASCAR insider Jeff Gluck revealed Joey Logano’s stance on the current dominance, which sounded a bit defeated. He said that according to Logano, “The Toyotas are ridiculously fast,” and that they have a lot of grip and horsepower. To be able to contend with them, Logano feels they must be absolutely perfect in every category, according to Logano. “We need them to make mistakes,” added Gluck, referring to his words. However, Denny Hamlin has a bit of a modest opinion on this.

When asked whether the championship could go to a Toyota this year, Hamlin said, “I hope so. I remember showing up to the championship race in 2021, knowing we had no shot. We weren’t good on the short tracks, maybe it was 2020 or 2021. Coy Gibbs told my mom, ‘I appreciate you coming, but we’re not going to win this race.’ Crushing her soul because she’s a very optimistic person, ‘Yeah we got a chance to win!’ No we don’t.

The reason? Hamlin, without being overconfident, feels that they “need everything to fall just right.” He added, “Don’t have the speed, Hendrick guys gathering in numbers. So we’ve been there, and I understand how that goes. I do feel like our cars are good right now. This is a track that the tires are a lot different, but you can draw some connections to Phoenix because of distance and banking.”

Hamlin’s caution comes from experience. In past playoffs like in 2020 and 2021, JGR often entered strong but stumbled eventually where Hendrick held the edge, leaving Toyota vulnerable despite early momentum. As for Gateway, the distance and banking are two such elements that can certainly help them to have a similar experience at Phoenix too.

Hamlin also didn’t underplay Logano’s Penske potential either, saying, “You just never know, the Penske cars come out of nowhere the last few years, when you didn’t think they had the speed. They just showed up one week and Poof! They had it. So you just never know in the sport, it just ebbs and it flows, I can sympathize cause I’ve been there.” Logano’s last year’s title win would be a perfect example to explain this, as despite not having the best of form with an average finish of 17.11, Logano and Team Penske found pace towards the end, clinching his third Cup title.

Their dominance is equally something to watch out for, not just for Hamlin, but for the entire garage, as the team winning the last three championships certainly cannot be underestimated.

Hamlin’s mentality shift in his twilight phase

As Hamlin nears the twilight of his career, his mentality is also at the peak of its maturity. Hamlin embraces a ‘win-first’ mentality over championships. After his Gateway victory, the 44-year-old veteran reflected on how his priorities have shifted after signing a two-year extension through 2027, which he views as his final full-time contract.

Hamlin had a contrasting approach from his championship rivals. For instance, without taking names, he hinted at Joey Logano’s legacy, saying, “When you compare me to someone that’s maybe got one or two, or maybe even three championships and half the wins, I don’t think that that person’s better than I am.” With 59 Cup victories to Logano’s 37, the comparison almost matches closely. He sees consistent success as more important for a legacy than playoff titles.

This also mixes with his frustration regarding the playoff format. Already a five-time winner in 2025, Hamlin is chasing a spot among the sport’s top 10 on the all-time wins list, insisting, “Championships isn’t one of them. I want to get the wins, and I feel like that will carry its weight long after.” Right now, for Hamlin, every upcoming race is a personal countdown that isn’t defined by titles, but by wins.