Dale Earnhardt Jr.’s JR Motorsports star, Connor Zilisch, has encountered a tough test at Phoenix Raceway. In March 2025, for instance, starting from the 4th position, he struggled to maintain consistent lap times, finishing 16th in the race. Despite this, he quickly rebounded, securing multiple wins in subsequent races, including a dominant victory at Dover, where he led 77 of 134 laps before weather conditions halted the race. But Phoenix remains elusive, and one dominant NASCAR driver could be a potential threat to the 19-year-old.

Justin Allgaier has showcased his expertise at Phoenix Raceway during the 2025 season. Leading a race-high 130 laps, Allgaier demonstrated his skill and determination. However, a late-race shuffle relegated him to a fifth-place finish, narrowly missing out on victory. But this result highlighted the competitive nature of the field and the fine margins that often separate success from disappointment. But with the Xfinity Series finale approaching, Zilisch has been warned by NASCAR insiders both against the threat from Allgaier and Phoenix.

Phoenix track looms large for Connor Zilisch and rivals

On the Door Bumper Clear podcast, NASCAR insider Karsyn Elledge highlighted just how dominant Connor Zilisch has been this season, consistently winning across his division and cementing his championship credentials. Jordan Bianchi added an important perspective: “The thing with Connor Zilisch that jumps out to me… he’s probably going to make the championship four just based on the points he’s accumulated. The problem is, where’s the championship at? It’s at Phoenix. And where is Justin Allgaier really good at? Phoenix… So it’s not really a knock on Connor. It’s just more of a ‘this is how it sets up well for the competition.’”

Zilisch’s strong 2025 performance underscores this viewpoint, but he remains a rookie still learning the playoff grind, particularly on tracks like Phoenix where veterans like Justin Allgaier excel. Allgaier, a long-time Phoenix expert in the NASCAR Xfinity Series, boasts two career wins and over 10 top-five finishes at the 1-mile oval. His dominance also includes leading over 500 laps at Phoenix, making him a perennial championship threat whenever the season finale is held there.

The 2024 Xfinity season finale at Phoenix offered a dramatic example. Despite crashing in practice and starting from a backup car at the rear of the field, Allgaier faced multiple penalties during the race that nearly put him two laps down. A timely caution allowed him to regroup and get back on the lead lap, and he surged from sixth to second during the first overtime restart. Though overtaken by Riley Herbst on the final lap, Allgaier’s runner-up finish was enough to secure the championship over fellow finalists Cole Custer, A.J. Allmendinger, and Austin Hill.

Allgaier has also expressed deep appreciation for Phoenix Raceway, highlighting its unique challenges and his strong performances there. He often mentioned his affinity for one-mile tracks, noting that they suit his driving style well. He once remarked, “The one-mile tracks suit me more than a larger track so far in my career. I’ve had a lot of success on short tracks so I am very excited to be in the No. 12 Penske Truck Rental Dodge Charger for Saturday’s Nationwide race.” His performance at the track showcases his ability to adapt and persevere under pressure, solidifying his status as a formidable competitor in the Xfinity Series, especially in the current playoff format.

Freddie Kraft then returned to reality, sarcastically adding, “The format is what it is. You can’t complain about it all you want. You can talk about 36 races, you can talk about 10 races, three races, whatever it is… I would probably suggest deleting all forms of social media if these guys get wrecked at Phoenix in the Final Four, if you’re NASCAR or anybody that wants to support the current playoff system.” That is indeed the harsh truth of the structure. Dominance in the regular season doesn’t guarantee anything when the championship hinges on a single race at a site where one mistake can erase all your advantages.

Connor Zilisch and Corey Heim battle for championship spotlight

As both the Truck Series and the Xfinity Series head to Phoenix, playoff contenders Corey Heim and Connor Zilisch face the ultimate test of their seasons. Both drivers have circled the spotlight, but the playoff structure doesn’t guarantee that regular-season dominance translates to titles. Heim, for instance, leads the Truck Series in laps led with nearly 1,192 laps, a staggering 40% of the total, far ahead of any competitor.

NASCAR insiders like Freddie Kraft didn’t mince words, saying, “Corey Heim has led 40% of the laps this year in the Truck Series. They are clearly the best cars, best teams in their respective series, but that’s not this format.” For proof, just look at Heim’s dominance at Charlotte, where he led a commanding 98 of 134 laps, swept both stages, and won by over six seconds, the largest margin in series history for the event. He has also secured 8 wins in 19 starts, along with 13 top-5 finishes and 15 top-10s, while maintaining an average finish of 6.2. Yet, this level of dominance means nothing if a single mishap in Phoenix derails the playoff path.

Jordan Bianchi layered in another dimension. “If neither of them win the championship, it’s going to be another talking point of yours, why we need to change the playoff format, etc.,” he said. “I like Corey Heim’s chances better than I like Connor Zilisch’s… One, he’s a great talent with a great team, and two, he’s got so much experience compared to a lot of the Truck Series guys who are still kind of coming into their own.” Heim has dominated the 2025 Truck Series, including a triple-overtime victory at Watkins Glen and a historic sweep at Lime Rock, where he led 99 of 100 laps. While Zilisch, with 9 wins this season, led 121 of the 160 laps at Gateway and wrapped up the regular-season Xfinity Series title, he still battles with a steep curve ahead of Phoenix.

With the final looming, even dominant drivers like Heim must navigate the high-stakes playoffs, where one misstep can decide the championship.