Last winter, Alex Bregman joined the Boston Red Sox for three years and $120 million with a pillow contract where he could opt out after the first and second seasons, after rejecting the Detroit Tigers’ six-year, $171.5 million and the Chicago Cubs ‘ four-year, $120 million contract on the table. The plan was simple: have a monster year in Boston, and cash in an even bigger deal next winter.

And he almost pulled it off, at least before his injury. Bregman was hitting .299 with 11 home runs and 35 RBIs in his first 51 games. Since returning from the six-week injury, he has slumped a bit. But his overall numbers are still elite: .281 batting with 16 homers and a 3.1 WAR in 95 appearances. And all while playing his Gold Glove defense at third base.

And this put the Red Sox in a tough spot as the season moves towards next year’s free agency. ESPN insider Jeff Passan reports that Bregman will definitely opt out of his contract. And sadly, Boston won’t be the only team at the table. Passan wrote, “Complicating matters for the Red Sox, though, are the teams in need of better production at third that might be willing to spend for what Bregman provides. The Phillies. The Yankees. The Tigers.”

ESPN’s Jeff Passan predicted a massive payday, writing, “Bregman is bound to get the five-year-plus deal at an average annual value of $35 million-plus that eluded him last winter.” That means a contract over $175 million, and if the Red Sox cannot pay, their rivals will.

And for Boston, losing Bregman would be a great blow as Passan noted: “Bregman has taken over the Red Sox’s clubhouse and become their unquestioned leader: a baseball rat whose wisdom is exceeded by his willingness to help his teammates.” 

While the league speculates, Bregman clarified his focus

Bregman has made it clear that he is entirely focused on leading Boston on a deep postseason run. “Obviously, we’re open to talking [when the season is over],” Bregman told the Boston Globe. “But for the next few months, I’m just really focused on the baseball.” 

And Red Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow also acknowledged that sentiment, saying, “We’ll continue to watch that situation unfold and have the conversations that we need to have with Alex, kind of as appropriate and when appropriate. But right now, Alex’s focus is on the field.”

But we can not ignore the Yankees’ situation and need in the hot corner. Because after releasing Veteran DJ LeMahieu mid-season, and the failure of  Oswaldo Cabrera and Oswald Peraza to seize the role, they recently traded for Ryan McMahon in July. But he is hitting just .243 in his 35 appearances for the Pinstripes.  It’s clearly not enough, and nowhere near the production of Bregman.

Beyond the Yankees, another major threat was the NL East leader Philadelphia Phillies. Though their current third baseman, Alec Bohm, was decent with an over .270 batting average in his last three seasons. But the team doesn’t have any other Bregman-level reliable options if he goes down. And upgrading from Bohm to Bregman is a logical transition for any team, any day.

The Red Sox are currently 78-63 and are in a great position to make the playoffs. But this offseason will define their future with Alex Bregman.