After his Cincinnati Open win on Monday, Carlos Alcaraz looks unstoppable, even if he won because Jannik Sinner retired in the first set. But the storyline for the 2025 US Open men’s singles was hardly his second title of the tournament or Sinner’s defense of his title. It was the World No. 1 ranking being up for grabs in Flushing Meadows. 

The Spaniard currently stands 1,890 points behind Sinner’s 11,480. Depending on how the US Open goes, things could change by the end of September first week. However, Thursday’s draw reveal certainly made some things clear. For one, while the former US Open champion Novak Djokovic has a winnable road, Alcaraz will not have an easy path in New York.

Revealing his thoughts on the draw, journalist and Tennis commentator, Jose Morgado, tweeted, “Alcaraz had the softest half at Roland Garros and Wimbledon but at the #USOpen he gets a very, very tough draw. Bottom half is brutal. Alcaraz has Opelka R1, Medvedev R4, Shelton/Ruud QF, Djokovic/Fritz SF.”

Although Alcaraz has had easy draws in the previous two major tournaments, it wasn’t third time lucky for him. The No. 1 seed dropped in the bottom half of the draw, alongside the former champions like the 7th seed Djokovic and 13th seed Daniil Medvedev. He will open his New York campaign against the local favorite, Reilly Opelka. The big-serving, 6’11” American has previously dispatched Djokovic, Alex de Minaur, Holger Rune, and Tomas Machac. For Alcaraz, though, upsets are a possibility this time, even if he moves forward.

Further, the 2021 US Open champion, Medvedev, would await him in the fourth round. If Alcaraz emerges through that contest, he could potentially face Ben Shelton or Casper Ruud in the quarterfinals. If Djokovic tackles all of his opponents successfully, Alcaraz will face the 4x US Open champ in the final four, who seemingly has an easier route.

The Serb is chasing his 25th Grand Slam title and will aim to dig deep in New York. He will open his campaign against American sensation Learner Tien. However, a qualifier or a lucky loser will await him in the second round. Further, his first meeting against a seeded player could be against Alex Michelsen in the third round. Djokovic has been placed in the same quarter as Holger Rune and could meet him in round 4 to potentially face Alcaraz in the last four on his way to the final against Sinner.

In the top half, defending champion and No. 1 seed Jannik Sinner has also received a relatively easy draw compared to Alcaraz. The Italian star is in the same quarter as Jack Draper, with a potential meeting against Alexander Zverev in the last four. Even though the draw favors Sinner, many tennis bigwigs, including Ryan Harrison, feel that Alcaraz will prevail in the tournament.

Ryan Harrison picks Carlos Alcaraz over Jannik Sinner for the US Open title

The duo of ‘Sincaraz’ has won each of the last seven Grand Slam titles among them, they go into the US Open as a hot favorite to continue that feat. Sinner has already won a couple of major titles this season, with Alcaraz prevailing at the French Open. When talking H2H, Alcaraz leads this year 3-1 in their four matchups. Overall, too, the Spaniard leads 9-5. And so, American star Harrison feels that the Spaniard can emerge victorious in New York.

He said, “Yes. Absolutely he can. Carlos has the most creativity in the game. What he can do with the ball with spin, the way he can transition, it’s why he can disrupt Sinner. Sinner hits the ball so big and flat that he can literally overpower the rest of the tour. Carlos is physically fit and strong enough that he can withstand those big strikes from Sinner but he can also create spin, create slice, use the drop shot. We have talked about Carlos’s drop shot for years now.

“He transitions well. And now he is getting free points on serve, which is another thing you have to deal with if you are in the Sinner camp. So yes, absolutely, I think Carlos can be a champion in New York again and I’d go as far as to say I have Carlos as the favourite in New York this year.”

However, Alcaraz will have to be at his absolute best if he is to win the US Open title. It’ll be interesting to see how he performs at Flushing Meadows in the coming days after already appearing for the mixed doubles alongside Emma Raducanu.